Posts tagged with "uncertainty"

Forecasting delivery is something every organisation should be doing. Unfortunately, hardly any do. This is a shame because it’s actually quite easy, as hopefully you’ll see below. Ev

A while back I posted this quote from a BBC interview with Astro Teller, “Capitain of Moonshots” at Google[x]: You must reward people for failing, he says. If not, they won’t take ri

In an earlier post, I discussed the importance of speed and the cost of delay for organisations that aren’t leading the market. For those who are attempting to lead the market (as opposed to a f

Developing new and improved products and services is an interesting problem space. Part of what makes it interesting is the presence of risks, uncertainties, and the possibility of Black Swan events.

In 82 AD, the roman satirist Juvenal wrote of the existence of a “perfect wife” being like that of a non-existent bird – nigroque cycnoa – the black swan. Juvenal’s “Black Swan

Putting a price tag on time can sound scary. A common fear is that the estimate of value will be misused as a tool for planning – much like other estimates of time or cost often are. When estimates ar

Delaying a decision as long as possible is often a good idea! Sounds counterintuitive doesn’t it, particularly for those of us with a well developed “sense of urgency” (like me!). Real Options is abou