Tag: Uncertainty
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How to do a *really* basic forecast
Forecasting delivery is something every organisation should be doing. Unfortunately, hardly any do. This is a shame because it’s actually quite easy, as hopefully you’ll see below. Even a very basic forecast is better than blindly following a plan. It doesn’t need to be super complicated. There will be flaws, of course, but much like qualitative cost of…
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Why failing fast is valuable
A while back I posted this quote from a BBC interview with Astro Teller, “Capitain of Moonshots” at Google[x]: You must reward people for failing, he says. If not, they won’t take risks and make breakthroughs. If you don’t reward failure, people will hang on to a doomed idea for fear of the consequences. That wastes…
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Lessons on patience: the benefit of delay
In an earlier post, I discussed the importance of speed and the cost of delay for organisations that aren’t leading the market. For those who are attempting to lead the market (as opposed to a fast follower strategy, like Samsung) the Cost of Delay is still there, and speed is still a vital ingredient, but…
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Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans
Developing new and improved products and services is an interesting problem space. Part of what makes it interesting is the presence of risks, uncertainties, and the possibility of Black Swan events. For some category of risk, we can calculate the probability. The roll of dice. A roulette wheel. The lottery. Because we can calculate the probability…
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Discovery Mindset and Black Swans
In 82 AD, the roman satirist Juvenal wrote of the existence of a “perfect wife” being like that of a non-existent bird – nigroque cycnoa – the black swan. Juvenal’s “Black Swan” was subsequently used across Europe as a synonym for something which could not exist. And so it remained for the next 1600 years, until a…
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Relativity and Rounding Errors
Putting a price tag on time can sound scary. A common fear is that the estimate of value will be misused as a tool for planning – much like other estimates of time or cost often are. When estimates are later proven to lack the precision they never had, those who underestimate the complexity of…
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Real Options: Embracing Uncertainty
Delaying a decision as long as possible is often a good idea! Sounds counterintuitive doesn’t it, particularly for those of us with a well developed “sense of urgency” (like me!). Real Options is about knowing when you have to make a decision. They are a great way to avoid making early decisions that could be irreversible.…
