Tag: Estimates
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How to do a *really* basic forecast
Forecasting delivery is something every organisation should be doing. Unfortunately, hardly any do. This is a shame because it’s actually quite easy, as hopefully you’ll see below. Even a very basic forecast is better than blindly following a plan. It doesn’t need to be super complicated. There will be flaws, of course, but much like qualitative cost of…
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CD3 and Cost of Delay puzzles
Johanna Rothman sent us through some common puzzles about Cost of Delay and CD3. Posting our thoughts here, in case others have similar questions or suggestions… “Who estimates the Value part of Cost of Delay?” In most organisations it tends to be the Product Owners or Product Managers who facilitate estimating the Cost of Delay. We see them more…
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Managing Queues in Product Development
“Blindness to queues” is one of the cardinal sins of product development. Why? Well, here is a typical value stream map for a feature being delivered by a software team. Notice all the waiting? Not laziness: lots of Work-In-Process; Demand > Supply The reason for all the waiting is not that anyone is sitting around staring out the window…
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Challenges with Cost of Delay and CD3: Duration
A couple of week’s ago I received an email asking how for help with applying Cost of Delay and CD3 to some potentially difficult cases. I enjoy these challenges. For an idea to survive, it needs to be stressed to see how it responds. Maybe the idea is completely flawed (e.g. the Geocentric model of the universe). Maybe it…
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Relativity and Rounding Errors
Putting a price tag on time can sound scary. A common fear is that the estimate of value will be misused as a tool for planning – much like other estimates of time or cost often are. When estimates are later proven to lack the precision they never had, those who underestimate the complexity of…
