How to do a *really* basic forecast

Forecasting delivery is something every organisation should be doing. Unfortunately, hardly any do. This is a shame because it’s actually quite easy, as hopefully you’ll see below. Even a very basic …

Why failing fast is valuable

A while back I posted this quote from a BBC interview with Astro Teller, “Capitain of Moonshots” at Google[x]: You must reward people for failing, he says. If not, they won’t …

Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans

Developing new and improved products and services is an interesting problem space. Part of what makes it interesting is the presence of risks, uncertainties, and the possibility of Black Swan events. …

Explorers discovering the first Black Swans, previously considered impossible.

Discovery Mindset and Black Swans

In 82 AD, the roman satirist Juvenal wrote of the existence of a “perfect wife” being like that of a non-existent bird – nigroque cycnoa – the black swan. Juvenal’s “Black …

Real Options: Embracing Uncertainty

Delaying a decision as long as possible is often a good idea! Sounds counterintuitive doesn’t it, particularly for those of us with a well developed “sense of urgency” (like me!). …